Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · AU

ANZ Group Holdings Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of ANZ Group Holdings Limited. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 7.3%, MDD -48.6%).

Data 1988-01-28 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 9,873 (38.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue ASXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 6.6%, drawdown -62.3%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 7.3%, MDD -48.6%, Sharpe 0.43, 81% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 0.7%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 13.8%p (CAGR 7.3%, MDD -48.6%, exposure 81%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=48, exitN=171
7.3%-48.6%0.430.1515.2x4181%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=45, slow=148
5.9%-46.6%0.400.139.0x6860%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=28, threshold=34
3.0%-27.6%0.330.113.1x3616%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=59, slow=143
4.0%-43.6%0.300.094.5x6365%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=11, k=3.1
2.5%-35.1%0.290.072.5x5617%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=54, atrPeriod=8, mult=2.2
1.6%-61.4%0.180.031.8x19144%
ROC 모멘텀
n=83, threshold=-0.03
1.2%-72.5%0.160.021.6x33969%
Supertrend
period=10, mult=4.9
1.0%-61.6%0.140.021.5x16752%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.14
-1.3%-92.3%0.02-0.010.6x26755%
MACD
fast=21, slow=52, signal=26
-3.8%-86.9%-0.13-0.040.2x34552%
Buy and hold6.6%-62.3%0.370.1111.7x1100%
1x 10x 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -16% -31% -47% -62% 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -48.6% (2014-04-28 → 2020-09-22), recovered after 3,602 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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