Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · AU

QBE Insurance Group Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of QBE Insurance Group Limited. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 9.8%, MDD -63.1%).

Data 1988-01-28 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 9,872 (38.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue ASXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 9.1%, drawdown -79.2%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 9.8%, MDD -63.1%, Sharpe 0.49, 93% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 0.7%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 16.1%p (CAGR 9.8%, MDD -63.1%, exposure 93%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=4, exitN=70
9.8%-63.1%0.490.1536.2x13393%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=12, k=2.9
3.4%-31.9%0.400.113.6x7619%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=12, atrPeriod=15, mult=4
3.1%-31.9%0.380.103.3x6017%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=29, threshold=32
2.9%-27.2%0.350.113.1x4618%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=41, slow=163
4.3%-81.4%0.310.055.0x6364%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=56, slow=170
4.2%-74.7%0.300.064.8x6764%
Supertrend
period=16, mult=4.2
4.0%-73.7%0.300.054.6x17559%
ROC 모멘텀
n=96, threshold=-0.02
3.1%-78.3%0.250.043.3x31968%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.36
-0.7%-80.3%0.06-0.010.8x25358%
MACD
fast=24, slow=36, signal=18
-3.2%-79.2%-0.09-0.040.3x42049%
Buy and hold9.1%-79.2%0.440.1128.7x1100%
1x 10x 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -20% -40% -59% -79% 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -63.1% (2009-12-30 → 2018-06-12), recovered after 5,626 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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