Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CH

Schindler Holding Ltd. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Schindler Holding Ltd.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 8.8%, MDD -33.4%).

Data 1995-04-03 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,985 (31.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SIXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 9.4%, drawdown -50.1%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 8.8%, MDD -33.4%, Sharpe 0.48, 80% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 0.6%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 16.8%p (CAGR 8.8%, MDD -33.4%, exposure 80%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=28, exitN=75
8.8%-33.4%0.480.2614.0x6280%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=17, slow=35
7.2%-39.4%0.450.188.8x16261%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=36, slow=87
7.1%-43.1%0.440.178.7x8862%
Supertrend
period=18, mult=4.9
6.0%-31.7%0.410.196.3x8455%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=78, k=2.8
3.3%-34.3%0.320.092.7x4422%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=29, threshold=27
1.4%-11.6%0.310.121.6x244%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=74, atrPeriod=22, mult=4
1.1%-48.7%0.150.021.4x7429%
ROC 모멘텀
n=114, threshold=0
-0.3%-66.9%0.08-0.000.9x30463%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.1
-0.6%-60.7%0.07-0.010.8x26658%
MACD
fast=18, slow=43, signal=19
-4.8%-82.6%-0.16-0.060.2x39652%
Buy and hold9.4%-50.1%0.460.1916.7x1100%
1x 10x 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -13% -25% -38% -50% 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -33.4% (2021-08-13 → 2022-11-07), recovered after 1,209 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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