Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

China Aerospace Times Electronics Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of China Aerospace Times Electronics Co., Ltd. Class A. 3 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Supertrend (CAGR 13.2%, MDD -62.0%).

Data 1995-11-15 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,642 (30.7 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

3 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 12.0%, drawdown -80.3%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 13.7%, MDD -72.4%, Sharpe 0.55, 59% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Supertrend — CAGR is 1.7%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 7.9%p (CAGR 13.2%, MDD -62.0%, exposure 53%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=70, exitN=66
13.7%-72.4%0.550.1951.0x5259%
Supertrend
period=29, mult=4
13.2%-62.0%0.550.2145.1x11053%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=53, slow=84
12.4%-79.6%0.520.1636.2x9456%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=50, k=3
8.6%-53.6%0.460.1612.4x6620%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=42, slow=75
10.3%-85.0%0.460.1220.1x8055%
ROC 모멘텀
n=80, threshold=-0.03
9.3%-73.1%0.430.1315.2x31660%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=37, threshold=15
6.7%-80.1%0.380.087.4x12631%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=57, atrPeriod=23, mult=1.7
7.0%-73.7%0.380.108.0x16439%
MACD
fast=18, slow=41, signal=17
6.1%-80.7%0.340.086.1x34251%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.34
0.7%-92.0%0.180.011.2x24652%
Buy and hold12.0%-80.3%0.480.1532.2x1100%
1x 10x 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -72.4% (2015-05-13 → 2024-09-11), recovered after 3,893 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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