Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. Class A. 7 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Supertrend ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is 볼린저 밴드 돌파 (CAGR 6.0%, MDD -40.5%).

Data 2011-05-18 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 3,693 (15.2 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

7 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 5.0%, drawdown -73.1%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Supertrend — CAGR 12.4%, MDD -45.5%, Sharpe 0.52, 58% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR is 7.4%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 27.7%p (CAGR 6.0%, MDD -40.5%, exposure 14%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Supertrend
period=9, mult=3.3
12.4%-45.5%0.520.275.9x7558%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=16, exitN=42
9.7%-63.4%0.440.154.1x5374%
MACD
fast=14, slow=52, signal=19
7.8%-51.3%0.400.153.1x16253%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=55, k=3.3
6.0%-40.5%0.400.152.4x1814%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.26
7.0%-48.7%0.380.142.8x19050%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=48, slow=139
6.2%-64.3%0.350.102.5x2342%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=14, slow=155
5.9%-57.4%0.340.102.4x4347%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=41, atrPeriod=29, mult=4
4.5%-41.1%0.330.112.0x2413%
ROC 모멘텀
n=141, threshold=0.11
4.8%-69.8%0.310.072.0x9532%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=29, threshold=16
3.7%-56.0%0.270.071.7x10433%
Buy and hold5.0%-73.1%0.340.072.1x1100%
1x 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 SupertrendBuy and hold
Supertrend: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -18% -37% -55% -73% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Buy and holdSupertrend
Supertrend maximum drawdown -45.5% (2011-08-11 → 2014-06-12), recovered after 1,236 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades the direction of a volatility-based trend line that trails below/above price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

Read next