Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

Red Avenue New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Red Avenue New Materials Group Co., Ltd. Class A. 8 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Keltner 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR 10.7%, MDD -20.1%).

Data 2018-07-10 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 1,954 (8.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

8 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 3.3%, drawdown -72.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR 10.7%, MDD -20.1%, Sharpe 0.59, 7% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: MACD — CAGR 14.1%, MDD -47.9%, exposure 49%.

Return/drawdown alternative: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 7.4%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 52.9%p (CAGR 10.7%, MDD -20.1%, exposure 7%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=10, atrPeriod=35, mult=2.3
10.7%-20.1%0.590.532.3x247%
MACD
fast=11, slow=58, signal=15
14.1%-47.9%0.550.292.9x9649%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=29, k=3.3
8.9%-35.3%0.500.252.0x1411%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=11, threshold=26
10.3%-51.9%0.470.202.2x7831%
Supertrend
period=23, mult=2.3
9.9%-54.3%0.450.182.1x7843%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=37, slow=84
8.5%-56.0%0.410.151.9x2746%
ROC 모멘텀
n=118, threshold=0.14
7.9%-53.0%0.400.151.8x6633%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=57, slow=191
7.7%-71.1%0.390.111.8x945%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=112, exitN=18
3.0%-51.9%0.250.061.3x1617%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.045, maxStep=0.24
-1.3%-68.7%0.16-0.020.9x27048%
Buy and hold3.3%-72.9%0.330.041.3x1100%
1x 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 MACDKeltner 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Keltner 채널 돌파 (Sharpe leader), MACD (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -18% -36% -55% -73% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Buy and holdMACDKeltner 채널 돌파
Keltner 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -20.1% (2020-07-10 → 2020-07-17), recovered after 385 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the channel top (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals an upside breakout.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

Read next