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Huaan ChiNext 50 ETF Units backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Huaan ChiNext 50 ETF Units. 9 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is 볼린저 밴드 돌파 (CAGR 13.6%, MDD -25.4%).

Data 2016-06-30 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 2,436 (10.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

9 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 4.6%, drawdown -59.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 13.6%, MDD -25.4%, Sharpe 0.79, 21% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 14.4%, MDD -34.9%, exposure 46%.

Return/drawdown alternative: 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR is 9.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 33.6%p (CAGR 13.6%, MDD -25.4%, exposure 21%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=33, k=2.4
13.6%-25.4%0.790.543.6x2821%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=28, slow=279
13.8%-30.5%0.720.453.7x545%
ROC 모멘텀
n=187, threshold=0.01
14.4%-34.9%0.700.413.9x1946%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=51, slow=201
12.4%-35.1%0.660.353.2x544%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=8, threshold=34
9.8%-25.4%0.620.392.6x9021%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=13, atrPeriod=23, mult=2.9
7.8%-25.4%0.600.312.1x126%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=105, exitN=55
10.9%-35.3%0.580.312.8x835%
Supertrend
period=12, mult=3.4
8.1%-29.4%0.460.282.2x5450%
MACD
fast=16, slow=56, signal=14
5.5%-48.5%0.360.111.7x11450%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.42
3.0%-43.9%0.250.071.3x8849%
Buy and hold4.6%-59.0%0.310.081.6x1100%
1x 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 ROC 모멘텀볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파 (Sharpe leader), ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -15% -29% -44% -59% 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -25.4% (2024-10-08 → 2024-10-17), recovered after 314 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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