Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Hithink RoyalFlush Information Network Co., Ltd. Class A. 4 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Keltner 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Parabolic SAR (CAGR 29.0%, MDD -49.5%).

Data 2009-12-25 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 4,029 (16.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

4 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 24.3%, drawdown -79.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR 23.0%, MDD -43.8%, Sharpe 0.86, 12% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Parabolic SAR — CAGR 29.0%, MDD -49.5%, exposure 46%.

Return/drawdown alternative: Parabolic SAR — CAGR is 1.4%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 35.7%p (CAGR 29.0%, MDD -49.5%, exposure 46%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=20, atrPeriod=24, mult=3.3
23.0%-43.8%0.860.5230.9x4012%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=21, k=2.5
24.7%-57.2%0.830.4339.0x9022%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.08
29.0%-49.5%0.830.5968.3x17446%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=100, exitN=67
27.9%-66.3%0.810.4259.8x1439%
Supertrend
period=29, mult=1.8
25.0%-61.3%0.760.4140.5x20843%
ROC 모멘텀
n=85, threshold=0.1
22.5%-73.6%0.710.3129.0x14234%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=31, threshold=30
16.5%-41.0%0.690.4012.5x1812%
MACD
fast=15, slow=53, signal=13
21.7%-60.3%0.690.3625.9x20048%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=56, slow=91
19.5%-73.3%0.640.2719.2x5646%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=33, slow=105
17.9%-75.2%0.600.2415.3x4047%
Buy and hold24.3%-79.6%0.680.3137.2x1100%
1x 10x 100x 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Parabolic SARKeltner 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Keltner 채널 돌파 (Sharpe leader), Parabolic SAR (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Buy and holdParabolic SARKeltner 채널 돌파
Keltner 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -43.8% (2019-04-08 → 2021-08-20), recovered after 1,456 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the channel top (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals an upside breakout.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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