Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · CN

Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co., Ltd. Class A backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Chaozhou Three-Circle (Group) Co., Ltd. Class A. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2014-12-03 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 2,832 (11.7 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SZSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 22.4%, drawdown -58.8%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 15.0%, MDD -25.8%, Sharpe 0.72, 20% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: MACD — CAGR 17.4%, MDD -51.5%, exposure 51%.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=19, k=2.5
15.0%-25.8%0.720.585.1x5220%
MACD
fast=24, slow=46, signal=19
17.4%-51.5%0.660.346.5x11051%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=23, exitN=50
17.0%-59.7%0.610.286.2x3174%
Supertrend
period=19, mult=2.2
15.2%-52.7%0.610.295.2x10652%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=25, atrPeriod=25, mult=1.9
11.4%-32.1%0.550.363.5x6024%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=6, slow=26
12.1%-59.7%0.510.203.8x12455%
ROC 모멘텀
n=19, threshold=-0.03
10.7%-58.2%0.470.183.3x23666%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.12
9.8%-67.9%0.450.143.0x20553%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=12, threshold=30
6.3%-56.1%0.370.112.0x8221%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=22, slow=217
6.6%-53.1%0.360.122.1x2759%
Buy and hold22.4%-58.8%0.680.3810.5x1100%
1x 10x 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 MACD볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파 (Sharpe leader), MACD (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -15% -29% -44% -59% 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdMACD볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -25.8% (2020-11-09 → 2024-05-16), recovered after 1,996 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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