Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Oakley Capital Investments Ltd Registered backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Oakley Capital Investments Ltd Registered. 2 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Supertrend (CAGR 9.7%, MDD -24.8%).

Data 2007-08-02 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 4,800 (19.0 years)Costs 0.5%Venue LSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

2 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 9.0%, drawdown -45.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR 10.7%, MDD -36.2%, Sharpe 0.94, 53% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Supertrend — CAGR is 1.7%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 9.6%p (CAGR 9.7%, MDD -24.8%, exposure 65%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.025, maxStep=0.22
10.7%-36.2%0.940.306.9x33153%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=21, k=3.5
4.7%-10.9%0.890.432.4x3614%
Supertrend
period=23, mult=2.8
9.7%-24.8%0.810.395.8x11765%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=71, exitN=38
8.4%-31.8%0.780.264.6x3451%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=45, atrPeriod=21, mult=2.3
6.9%-31.3%0.740.223.5x7642%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=6, slow=116
8.5%-31.6%0.710.274.7x5758%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=7, slow=108
8.5%-32.3%0.700.264.7x6158%
ROC 모멘텀
n=102, threshold=0
7.7%-24.0%0.640.324.1x10958%
MACD
fast=12, slow=41, signal=12
6.2%-31.4%0.600.203.2x22149%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=10, threshold=17
4.3%-40.6%0.440.112.2x33946%
Buy and hold9.0%-45.9%0.570.205.2x1100%
1x 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -11% -23% -34% -46% 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Buy and holdParabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -36.2% (2022-03-16 → 2026-03-16), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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