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Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC GBP backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC GBP. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; EMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1970-01-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 14,592 (56.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue LSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 7.7%, drawdown -87.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 1.2%, MDD -83.1%, Sharpe 0.20, 65% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 3.3%, MDD -89.9%, exposure 73%.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
EMA 크로스오버
fast=57, slow=83
1.2%-83.1%0.200.012.0x11565%
ROC 모멘텀
n=113, threshold=-0.03
3.3%-89.9%0.180.046.2x30973%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=73, exitN=103
0.6%-84.4%0.170.011.4x9171%
Supertrend
period=21, mult=4.3
2.0%-86.6%0.160.023.0x32960%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=22, slow=167
0.2%-85.5%0.150.001.1x13363%
MACD
fast=18, slow=29, signal=11
2.1%-73.7%0.130.033.2x80748%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=56, atrPeriod=9, mult=2.1
0.0%-85.8%0.120.001.0x29948%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.28
-0.7%-91.7%0.11-0.010.7x35359%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=20, k=1.8
0.7%-66.9%0.110.011.5x54542%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=13, threshold=23
-3.5%-92.8%0.06-0.040.1x51939%
Buy and hold7.7%-87.5%0.260.0968.1x1100%
1x 10x 100x 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020 ROC 모멘텀EMA 크로스오버Buy and hold
EMA 크로스오버 (Sharpe leader), ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -22% -45% -67% -90% 1971 1978 1985 1992 1999 2006 2013 2020 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀EMA 크로스오버
EMA 크로스오버 maximum drawdown -83.1% (2010-12-17 → 2024-02-28), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Uses two exponential averages (more weight on recent prices) and trades their crossover.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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