Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · HK

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Geely Automobile Holdings Limited. 9 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Parabolic SAR ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is 볼린저 밴드 돌파 (CAGR 23.0%, MDD -40.5%).

Data 2005-09-29 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,136 (20.8 years)Costs 0.5%Venue HKEXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

9 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 20.1%, drawdown -84.1%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Parabolic SAR — CAGR 28.8%, MDD -55.3%, Sharpe 0.88, 50% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR is 8.6%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 28.9%p (CAGR 23.0%, MDD -40.5%, exposure 34%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.06
28.8%-55.3%0.880.52193.6x23550%
MACD
fast=18, slow=46, signal=11
27.7%-62.3%0.860.44162.2x24150%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=52, k=2.2
23.0%-40.5%0.840.5774.8x6834%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=8, slow=32
25.8%-56.5%0.820.46118.5x17553%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=34, atrPeriod=11, mult=2.5
21.2%-46.6%0.810.4655.4x9029%
Supertrend
period=12, mult=4.3
25.8%-52.4%0.810.49119.7x7355%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=7, slow=70
24.8%-59.6%0.790.42101.3x10453%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=35, threshold=16
19.8%-51.0%0.760.3942.9x9629%
ROC 모멘텀
n=63, threshold=0.04
22.1%-50.5%0.740.4463.9x19447%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=31, exitN=27
21.7%-56.8%0.730.3859.9x8252%
Buy and hold20.1%-84.1%0.620.2445.8x1100%
1x 10x 100x 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Parabolic SARBuy and hold
Parabolic SAR: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -21% -42% -63% -84% 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Buy and holdParabolic SAR
Parabolic SAR maximum drawdown -55.3% (2017-10-06 → 2020-06-15), recovered after 1,356 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Trades around the Parabolic SAR dots that accelerate toward price.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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