Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · HK

China Overseas Land & Investment Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of China Overseas Land & Investment Limited. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is 볼린저 밴드 돌파 (CAGR 8.1%, MDD -37.1%).

Data 2000-01-04 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,623 (26.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue HKEXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 8.1%, drawdown -67.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 8.1%, MDD -37.1%, Sharpe 0.52, 17% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR is 0.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 30.7%p (CAGR 8.1%, MDD -37.1%, exposure 17%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=29, k=2.8
8.1%-37.1%0.520.228.0x7017%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=57, atrPeriod=29, mult=3.8
5.2%-51.1%0.360.103.9x4818%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=28, threshold=24
4.4%-55.4%0.350.083.1x5012%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=19, slow=68
5.9%-84.1%0.340.074.5x11452%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=24, exitN=78
5.5%-89.1%0.330.064.1x6776%
ROC 모멘텀
n=135, threshold=0.18
4.9%-77.0%0.320.063.6x18227%
MACD
fast=18, slow=52, signal=31
3.1%-94.1%0.250.032.2x23650%
Supertrend
period=24, mult=4.2
2.0%-90.8%0.210.021.7x10253%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=30, slow=40
1.6%-91.7%0.200.021.5x11852%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.28
0.5%-91.9%0.170.011.1x21151%
Buy and hold8.1%-67.9%0.400.127.9x1100%
1x 10x 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -17% -34% -51% -68% 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and hold볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -37.1% (2004-01-26 → 2005-07-28), recovered after 658 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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