Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · IN

Bajaj Finance Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Bajaj Finance Limited. 3 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2002-07-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,981 (24.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

3 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 37.4%, drawdown -99.8%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR -3.5%, MDD -99.6%, Sharpe 0.57, 44% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 42.2%, MDD -99.5%, exposure 83%.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=18, k=1.6
-3.5%-99.6%0.57-0.030.4x30444%
MACD
fast=23, slow=57, signal=13
-3.0%-99.8%0.57-0.030.5x24353%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.34
-4.6%-99.7%0.52-0.050.3x30857%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=11, threshold=28
-7.2%-99.7%0.45-0.070.2x27336%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=10, exitN=41
42.2%-99.5%0.220.424833.3x7583%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=15, slow=40
42.0%-99.1%0.220.424671.9x9366%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=9, slow=60
41.6%-99.1%0.220.424347.7x11165%
ROC 모멘텀
n=92, threshold=-0.09
37.0%-99.2%0.220.371949.2x13982%
Supertrend
period=13, mult=4.1
35.6%-99.2%0.220.361533.4x7763%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=59, atrPeriod=13, mult=0.9
32.4%-99.5%0.220.33857.0x14959%
Buy and hold37.4%-99.8%0.220.372097.9x1100%
0.01 0.1 1x 10x 100x 1,000x 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파 (Sharpe leader), Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -25% -50% -75% -100% 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -99.6% (2005-07-15 → 2005-08-01), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

Read next