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Nippon India ETF Nifty Bank BeES backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Nippon India ETF Nifty Bank BeES. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; MACD ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2009-01-02 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 4,335 (17.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 14.8%, drawdown -90.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): MACD — CAGR 9.4%, MDD -31.0%, Sharpe 0.67, 49% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
MACD
fast=15, slow=46, signal=16
9.4%-31.0%0.670.304.9x19049%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=18, k=2.4
6.2%-15.9%0.620.392.9x10222%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=24, atrPeriod=18, mult=3.3
4.8%-23.8%0.510.202.3x5018%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=31, threshold=19
4.8%-31.5%0.450.152.3x4834%
ROC 모멘텀
n=132, threshold=0.17
3.8%-27.9%0.400.131.9x8425%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=5, exitN=38
-0.4%-92.7%0.33-0.000.9x8587%
Supertrend
period=13, mult=3.4
-1.2%-91.7%0.30-0.010.8x9358%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=23, slow=81
7.5%-90.1%0.260.083.6x6365%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=13, slow=49
-2.7%-91.7%0.25-0.030.6x8966%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.38
-8.5%-94.8%0.02-0.090.2x14857%
Buy and hold14.8%-90.0%0.290.1611.2x1100%
1x 10x 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 MACDBuy and hold
MACD: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -22% -45% -67% -90% 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Buy and holdMACD
MACD maximum drawdown -31.0% (2010-10-05 → 2012-01-05), recovered after 730 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Looks at the gap (MACD) between a short and long average crossing its own signal line.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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