Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · IN

Federal Bank Ltd. (India) backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Federal Bank Ltd. (India). 2 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; SMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 15.5%, MDD -56.0%).

Data 1996-01-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,678 (30.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

2 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 15.4%, drawdown -87.8%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 15.7%, MDD -56.3%, Sharpe 0.62, 57% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 0.3%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 31.4%p (CAGR 15.5%, MDD -56.0%, exposure 58%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
SMA 크로스오버
fast=13, slow=157
15.7%-56.3%0.620.2887.2x7157%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=32, slow=64
15.5%-56.0%0.610.2881.1x8158%
ROC 모멘텀
n=95, threshold=-0.08
13.6%-64.0%0.540.2148.9x21373%
Supertrend
period=8, mult=3.9
12.3%-69.5%0.530.1834.5x12756%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=107, exitN=74
12.1%-63.6%0.530.1933.2x3759%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=49, k=1
11.2%-64.3%0.520.1725.7x21145%
MACD
fast=12, slow=42, signal=16
9.2%-57.1%0.440.1614.8x39952%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=50, atrPeriod=34, mult=3
6.8%-61.5%0.400.117.5x10529%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.015, maxStep=0.14
7.6%-59.2%0.400.139.5x49150%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=27, threshold=3
6.2%-78.9%0.350.086.3x40154%
Buy and hold15.4%-87.8%0.550.1880.6x1100%
1x 10x 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 SMA 크로스오버Buy and hold
SMA 크로스오버: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -22% -44% -66% -88% 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdSMA 크로스오버
SMA 크로스오버 maximum drawdown -56.3% (2000-02-04 → 2001-12-27), recovered after 760 days.

Rules of the top strategy

When the short average rises above the long average, it reads that as an uptrend starting.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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