Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · IN

GAIL (India) Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of GAIL (India) Limited. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; SMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1997-04-02 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,349 (29.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 9.6%, drawdown -81.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 3.4%, MDD -89.8%, Sharpe 0.32, 52% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 9.1%, MDD -82.8%, exposure 53%.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
SMA 크로스오버
fast=50, slow=186
3.4%-89.8%0.320.042.6x4152%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=82, exitN=67
9.1%-82.8%0.280.1112.7x3353%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=57, slow=181
8.1%-84.9%0.270.109.7x3752%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=39, threshold=12
2.6%-71.3%0.230.042.1x16830%
ROC 모멘텀
n=125, threshold=-0.02
1.6%-88.0%0.200.021.6x26758%
Supertrend
period=28, mult=3
0.4%-91.5%0.180.001.1x17147%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.24
-0.2%-84.9%0.17-0.000.9x22149%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=45, atrPeriod=13, mult=1.5
-2.3%-92.4%0.14-0.030.5x19436%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=54, k=1.6
-2.5%-91.1%0.14-0.030.5x16537%
MACD
fast=14, slow=23, signal=18
-5.1%-97.4%0.12-0.050.2x41653%
Buy and hold9.6%-81.9%0.310.1214.7x1100%
1x 10x 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파SMA 크로스오버Buy and hold
SMA 크로스오버 (Sharpe leader), Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -22% -45% -67% -90% 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파SMA 크로스오버
SMA 크로스오버 maximum drawdown -89.8% (2004-01-05 → 2007-03-05), recovered after 7,497 days.

Rules of the top strategy

When the short average rises above the long average, it reads that as an uptrend starting.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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