Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Graphite India Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Graphite India Limited. 7 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Keltner 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Keltner 채널 돌파 (CAGR 22.2%, MDD -28.6%).

Data 2002-07-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,982 (24.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

7 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 21.2%, drawdown -90.4%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR 22.2%, MDD -28.6%, Sharpe 0.99, 20% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 28.9%, MDD -52.3%, exposure 56%.

Return/drawdown alternative: Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 1.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 61.8%p (CAGR 22.2%, MDD -28.6%, exposure 20%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=58, atrPeriod=11, mult=4
22.2%-28.6%0.990.78124.5x2420%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=51, threshold=22
22.1%-33.4%0.940.66122.6x2626%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=109, exitN=41
26.6%-42.6%0.930.62291.8x2640%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=42, slow=96
28.9%-52.3%0.930.55451.4x6056%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=53, k=3.5
17.0%-37.6%0.860.4543.7x2015%
Supertrend
period=4, mult=3.8
25.2%-64.5%0.800.39225.6x8367%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=48, slow=61
22.7%-57.3%0.790.40138.2x6054%
ROC 모멘텀
n=132, threshold=0.08
21.8%-67.4%0.780.32114.8x15844%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.38
13.1%-81.6%0.540.1619.3x30151%
MACD
fast=16, slow=50, signal=12
11.9%-72.9%0.510.1614.9x31150%
Buy and hold21.2%-90.4%0.660.23102.7x1100%
1x 10x 100x 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 SMA 크로스오버Keltner 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Keltner 채널 돌파 (Sharpe leader), SMA 크로스오버 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -23% -45% -68% -90% 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Buy and holdSMA 크로스오버Keltner 채널 돌파
Keltner 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -28.6% (2004-01-14 → 2004-12-01), recovered after 391 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the channel top (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals an upside breakout.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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