Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Havells India Limited backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Havells India Limited. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 31.7%, MDD -41.5%).

Data 2002-07-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,982 (24.1 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 31.8%, drawdown -84.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 32.0%, MDD -51.4%, Sharpe 1.05, 68% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 0.2%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 33.6%p (CAGR 31.7%, MDD -41.5%, exposure 67%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=45, exitN=47
32.0%-51.4%1.050.62802.5x3768%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=41, slow=73
31.7%-41.5%1.030.76752.0x4467%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=22, slow=175
30.5%-44.4%1.020.69604.9x3268%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=51, atrPeriod=22, mult=1.3
24.7%-48.0%0.930.51202.4x13350%
Supertrend
period=23, mult=4.8
25.9%-38.3%0.900.68257.5x5863%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=75, k=1.1
23.8%-37.7%0.890.63170.3x9952%
ROC 모멘텀
n=92, threshold=0.01
25.4%-41.5%0.890.61233.1x20263%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=32, threshold=17
18.3%-40.3%0.800.4557.6x10834%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.02
20.3%-58.0%0.760.3585.3x13259%
MACD
fast=13, slow=51, signal=19
9.1%-51.6%0.450.188.2x30951%
Buy and hold31.8%-84.9%0.920.37779.1x1100%
1x 10x 100x 1,000x 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -21% -42% -64% -85% 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -51.4% (2004-01-02 → 2004-07-23), recovered after 350 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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