Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · IN

NBCC (INDIA) LIMITED backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of NBCC (INDIA) LIMITED. 6 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is MACD (CAGR 24.5%, MDD -41.9%).

Data 2012-04-12 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 3,531 (14.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

6 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 24.1%, drawdown -89.3%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 22.2%, MDD -31.5%, Sharpe 0.93, 20% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 29.5%, MDD -46.9%, exposure 56%.

Return/drawdown alternative: MACD — CAGR is 1.9%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 57.7%p (CAGR 24.5%, MDD -41.9%, exposure 50%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=26, k=2.8
22.2%-31.5%0.930.7017.6x4420%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=6, slow=105
29.5%-46.9%0.920.6340.4x5456%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=49, threshold=27
18.2%-35.2%0.920.5211.0x610%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=6, slow=107
26.8%-47.5%0.860.5730.0x6456%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=48, atrPeriod=22, mult=1.1
25.6%-53.0%0.860.4825.9x10048%
ROC 모멘텀
n=101, threshold=0.14
24.4%-47.7%0.850.5122.7x9641%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=95, exitN=53
24.3%-54.2%0.830.4522.5x2147%
MACD
fast=19, slow=29, signal=17
24.5%-41.9%0.820.5822.9x14850%
Supertrend
period=10, mult=1.7
23.6%-47.3%0.800.5020.6x19453%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.02, maxStep=0.14
23.8%-44.3%0.800.5421.1x26053%
Buy and hold24.1%-89.3%0.700.2721.9x1100%
1x 10x 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 SMA 크로스오버볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파 (Sharpe leader), SMA 크로스오버 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -22% -45% -67% -89% 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdSMA 크로스오버볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -31.5% (2021-03-02 → 2023-08-03), recovered after 1,044 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

Read next