Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · IN

State Bank of India backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of State Bank of India. 2 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; MACD ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is MACD (CAGR 12.1%, MDD -45.3%).

Data 1996-01-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 7,677 (30.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue NSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

2 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 14.0%, drawdown -61.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): MACD — CAGR 12.1%, MDD -45.3%, Sharpe 0.58, 50% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 14.4%, MDD -67.6%, exposure 89%.

Return/drawdown alternative: MACD — CAGR is 1.8%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 16.2%p (CAGR 12.1%, MDD -45.3%, exposure 50%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
MACD
fast=8, slow=50, signal=17
12.1%-45.3%0.580.2732.9x41450%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=7, exitN=79
14.4%-67.6%0.570.2161.2x8789%
ROC 모멘텀
Hold-like · Exposure 98%
n=9, threshold=-0.13
14.2%-60.7%0.550.2358.7x12998%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.045, maxStep=0.06
9.8%-54.1%0.490.1817.2x49253%
Supertrend
period=19, mult=2
9.1%-62.5%0.470.1514.3x38451%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=22, k=1.2
7.0%-52.7%0.410.137.8x39043%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=6, slow=151
7.4%-73.9%0.400.108.8x12562%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=18, atrPeriod=24, mult=1.9
5.6%-49.2%0.390.115.4x21627%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=33, threshold=10
6.3%-70.4%0.370.096.4x34650%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=10, slow=85
6.2%-70.6%0.360.096.2x13958%
Buy and hold14.0%-61.5%0.540.2354.3x1100%
1x 10x 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파MACDBuy and hold
MACD (Sharpe leader), Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -17% -34% -51% -68% 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파MACD
MACD maximum drawdown -45.3% (2024-03-07 → 2025-09-12), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

Looks at the gap (MACD) between a short and long average crossing its own signal line.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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