Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · NL

Akzo Nobel N.V. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Akzo Nobel N.V.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 1995-03-27 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 8,079 (31.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue EURONEXTMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 3.4%, drawdown -71.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 2.3%, MDD -61.7%, Sharpe 0.21, 82% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=7, exitN=36
2.3%-61.7%0.210.042.1x17382%
ROC 모멘텀
n=128, threshold=-0.03
1.5%-55.6%0.170.031.6x24164%
Supertrend
period=10, mult=4.9
0.9%-62.7%0.140.011.3x11050%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=73, slow=245
0.7%-55.7%0.130.011.3x4160%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=48, slow=157
0.6%-57.3%0.120.011.2x7557%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=40, k=2.8
0.4%-46.8%0.090.011.1x6015%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=32, atrPeriod=10, mult=3.4
-0.0%-41.2%0.05-0.001.0x7816%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.1
-1.9%-72.9%0.00-0.030.6x43355%
MACD
fast=15, slow=30, signal=19
-2.4%-75.6%-0.02-0.030.5x40150%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=32, threshold=32
-0.1%-3.0%-0.11-0.021.0x20%
Buy and hold3.4%-71.6%0.260.052.8x1100%
1x 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -18% -36% -54% -72% 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -61.7% (1998-07-20 → 2003-03-31), recovered after 3,174 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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