Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Cadeler A/S backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Cadeler A/S. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; 볼린저 밴드 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2020-11-27 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 1,423 (5.7 years)Costs 0.5%Venue OSLMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 15.6%, drawdown -47.9%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR 7.9%, MDD -11.2%, Sharpe 0.88, 9% exposure.

CAGR reference leader: Parabolic SAR — CAGR 9.9%, MDD -30.0%, exposure 50%.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=36, k=3.3
7.9%-11.2%0.880.701.5x49%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.035, maxStep=0.18
9.9%-30.0%0.490.331.7x16250%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=14, threshold=36
3.9%-12.9%0.460.311.2x149%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=20, atrPeriod=25, mult=2.5
5.4%-21.6%0.440.251.3x1616%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=11, exitN=69
8.9%-36.7%0.430.241.6x1380%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=22, slow=116
4.0%-37.1%0.290.111.2x1848%
Supertrend
period=19, mult=4
3.8%-55.3%0.270.071.2x2445%
ROC 모멘텀
n=113, threshold=0.09
2.6%-26.9%0.230.101.2x5438%
MACD
fast=10, slow=47, signal=6
2.6%-46.3%0.230.061.2x10450%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=38, slow=65
2.2%-40.9%0.210.051.1x2053%
Buy and hold15.6%-47.9%0.580.322.3x1100%
1x 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Parabolic SAR볼린저 밴드 돌파Buy and hold
볼린저 밴드 돌파 (Sharpe leader), Parabolic SAR (CAGR reference), Buy and hold.
0% -12% -24% -36% -48% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Buy and holdParabolic SAR볼린저 밴드 돌파
볼린저 밴드 돌파 maximum drawdown -11.2% (2024-02-05 → 2024-04-22), recovered after 92 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Breaking above the upper band (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals a strong move up.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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