Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · PL

Inter Cars S.A. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Inter Cars S.A.. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 20.9%, MDD -45.8%).

Data 2004-06-04 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,680 (22.2 years)Costs 0.5%Venue GPWMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 18.2%, drawdown -89.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 20.9%, MDD -45.8%, Sharpe 0.80, 74% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 2.7%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 43.2%p (CAGR 20.9%, MDD -45.8%, exposure 74%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=29, exitN=77
20.9%-45.8%0.800.4666.7x3774%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=42, atrPeriod=12, mult=3.9
12.6%-45.8%0.780.2713.7x4322%
Supertrend
period=13, mult=3.8
17.1%-54.3%0.760.3233.1x8352%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=20, slow=66
16.0%-51.8%0.710.3126.7x9554%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=22, slow=56
16.1%-58.5%0.710.2827.5x8357%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=21, k=3.1
8.5%-32.8%0.670.266.1x6113%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=31, threshold=20
8.9%-32.2%0.620.286.6x5716%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.12
11.8%-50.2%0.570.2411.9x28353%
ROC 모멘텀
n=70, threshold=-0.04
9.5%-78.0%0.460.127.5x27768%
MACD
fast=16, slow=27, signal=14
2.2%-67.7%0.210.031.6x34749%
Buy and hold18.2%-89.0%0.640.2040.5x1100%
1x 10x 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -22% -45% -67% -89% 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -45.8% (2016-08-09 → 2020-03-11), recovered after 1,746 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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