Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · TH

Airports of Thailand Public Co Ltd backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Airports of Thailand Public Co Ltd. 2 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is SMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 12.5%, MDD -41.8%).

Data 2004-03-11 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,494 (22.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue SETMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

2 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 12.2%, drawdown -79.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 18.9%, MDD -44.0%, Sharpe 0.79, 85% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 6.7%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 35.6%p (CAGR 12.5%, MDD -41.8%, exposure 60%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=12, exitN=73
18.9%-44.0%0.790.4348.2x4785%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=32, slow=127
12.5%-41.8%0.640.3013.9x4560%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.28
11.3%-46.7%0.600.2411.1x14156%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=37, slow=50
11.5%-59.2%0.590.1911.4x6962%
Supertrend
period=15, mult=2.7
10.8%-38.4%0.580.2810.0x15955%
ROC 모멘텀
n=105, threshold=0.09
9.0%-57.4%0.530.166.9x18338%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=40, k=1.1
8.4%-52.4%0.510.166.1x15345%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=41, atrPeriod=15, mult=1.4
8.1%-60.7%0.490.135.7x16144%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=35, threshold=16
6.8%-43.8%0.460.164.4x8927%
MACD
fast=11, slow=30, signal=17
6.8%-44.7%0.430.154.4x28848%
Buy and hold12.2%-79.6%0.530.1513.2x1100%
1x 10x 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -44.0% (2006-11-20 → 2009-04-09), recovered after 977 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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