Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Taiwan Union Technology Corporation backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Taiwan Union Technology Corporation. 2 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is SMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 26.6%, MDD -49.3%).

Data 2007-12-31 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 4,552 (18.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue TPEXMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

2 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 25.9%, drawdown -74.2%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 31.0%, MDD -51.7%, Sharpe 0.89, 81% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: SMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 5.1%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 22.5%p (CAGR 26.6%, MDD -49.3%, exposure 63%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=17, exitN=76
31.0%-51.7%0.890.60150.1x3981%
ROC 모멘텀
n=164, threshold=0.11
25.3%-50.9%0.850.5066.2x10752%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=45, slow=221
26.6%-49.3%0.850.5480.5x2763%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=15, slow=139
25.0%-60.6%0.810.4163.5x3964%
Supertrend
period=5, mult=3.9
20.5%-51.0%0.730.4032.1x7659%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=57, k=1.1
19.2%-58.3%0.720.3326.1x10247%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=37, atrPeriod=22, mult=3.2
15.2%-50.3%0.710.3013.8x5624%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=28, threshold=15
17.9%-44.0%0.700.4121.3x11841%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.025, maxStep=0.12
12.1%-50.7%0.530.248.4x38052%
MACD
fast=15, slow=42, signal=10
10.9%-56.6%0.500.196.8x25452%
Buy and hold25.9%-74.2%0.750.3571.7x1100%
1x 10x 100x 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -19% -37% -56% -74% 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -51.7% (2014-04-17 → 2015-09-24), recovered after 830 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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