Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · TW

First Financial Holding Co. Ltd. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of First Financial Holding Co. Ltd.. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; ROC 모멘텀 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is ROC 모멘텀 (CAGR 4.9%, MDD -42.3%).

Data 2003-01-03 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,825 (23.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue TWSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 5.3%, drawdown -67.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR 4.9%, MDD -42.3%, Sharpe 0.34, 87% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: ROC 모멘텀 — CAGR is 0.4%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 25.3%p (CAGR 4.9%, MDD -42.3%, exposure 87%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
ROC 모멘텀
n=115, threshold=-0.09
4.9%-42.3%0.340.123.1x9187%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=53, slow=127
2.7%-36.3%0.240.071.9x5162%
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=16, exitN=71
1.7%-41.8%0.190.041.5x6786%
Supertrend
period=10, mult=4.5
1.6%-41.0%0.180.041.5x9152%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=18, slow=117
1.1%-43.8%0.150.031.3x7769%
MACD
fast=29, slow=83, signal=19
0.3%-53.8%0.100.001.1x18951%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=45, k=2.8
-0.4%-45.9%0.02-0.010.9x5517%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=31, threshold=22
-0.5%-41.8%-0.02-0.010.9x5313%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.24
-2.4%-64.5%-0.06-0.040.6x17355%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=42, atrPeriod=20, mult=2.1
-1.7%-49.2%-0.06-0.030.7x14536%
Buy and hold5.3%-67.6%0.340.083.4x1100%
1x 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 ROC 모멘텀Buy and hold
ROC 모멘텀: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -17% -34% -51% -68% 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Buy and holdROC 모멘텀
ROC 모멘텀 maximum drawdown -42.3% (2008-05-19 → 2010-07-05), recovered after 3,987 days.

Rules of the top strategy

Rides the trend when recent return (momentum) over a window is above a threshold.

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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