Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · US
AtriCure, Inc. backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of AtriCure, Inc.. 9 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 10.7%, MDD -46.8%).
Results by strategy
9 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 4.8%, drawdown -92.8%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 13.8%, MDD -59.6%, Sharpe 0.54, 62% exposure.
Return/drawdown alternative: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 9.0%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 33.3%p (CAGR 10.7%, MDD -46.8%, exposure 54%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=61, exitN=100 |
13.8% | -59.6% | 0.54 | 0.23 | 15.1x | 25 | 62% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=53, atrPeriod=24, mult=2.2 |
11.1% | -53.7% | 0.52 | 0.21 | 9.1x | 75 | 37% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=26, slow=123 |
12.4% | -48.8% | 0.52 | 0.25 | 11.7x | 51 | 51% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=48, slow=129 |
10.7% | -46.8% | 0.47 | 0.23 | 8.4x | 33 | 54% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=89, threshold=0.02 |
10.1% | -49.7% | 0.46 | 0.20 | 7.6x | 151 | 51% |
| Supertrend period=8, mult=2.5 |
8.3% | -65.9% | 0.40 | 0.13 | 5.3x | 149 | 54% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=35, threshold=14 |
9.8% | -51.6% | 0.39 | 0.19 | 7.2x | 121 | 30% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.005, maxStep=0.14 |
9.7% | -66.3% | 0.39 | 0.15 | 6.9x | 165 | 53% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=54, k=1.5 |
7.0% | -55.0% | 0.38 | 0.13 | 4.2x | 99 | 40% |
| MACD fast=16, slow=42, signal=20 |
0.7% | -74.2% | 0.20 | 0.01 | 1.2x | 243 | 53% |
| Buy and hold | 4.8% | -92.8% | 0.34 | 0.05 | 2.7x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).
- Buy — Buy on a breakout above the highest high of the last 61 days
- Sell — Sell when price breaks below the lowest low of the last 100 days