Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

Domino's Pizza Inc backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Domino's Pizza Inc. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 16.6%, MDD -64.1%).

Data 2004-07-13 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,549 (22.0 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNASMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 15.8%, drawdown -91.6%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 16.6%, MDD -64.1%, Sharpe 0.67, 81% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 0.8%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 27.5%p (CAGR 16.6%, MDD -64.1%, exposure 81%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=14, exitN=46
16.6%-64.1%0.670.2629.8x6781%
Supertrend
period=19, mult=3.5
13.8%-46.7%0.660.3017.2x10359%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=51, slow=112
14.1%-53.8%0.640.2618.2x3067%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=21, slow=203
13.4%-58.4%0.610.2315.9x3266%
ROC 모멘텀
n=123, threshold=0.01
12.4%-54.5%0.580.2313.1x14664%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.3
9.1%-57.1%0.480.166.9x19157%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=44, k=1.2
8.5%-50.6%0.480.176.1x16152%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=45, atrPeriod=20, mult=2.1
6.6%-31.5%0.410.214.1x12146%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=16, threshold=19
3.2%-41.7%0.260.082.0x27138%
MACD
fast=15, slow=33, signal=21
1.6%-67.1%0.180.021.4x26949%
Buy and hold15.8%-91.6%0.590.1725.6x1100%
1x 10x 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -23% -46% -69% -92% 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -64.1% (2007-04-16 → 2008-07-14), recovered after 1,037 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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