Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

GATX Corporation backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of GATX Corporation. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 5.7%, MDD -52.7%).

Data 1973-02-21 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 13,474 (53.4 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 5.4%, drawdown -73.5%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 5.7%, MDD -52.7%, Sharpe 0.34, 86% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 0.3%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 20.7%p (CAGR 5.7%, MDD -52.7%, exposure 86%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=8, exitN=67
5.7%-52.7%0.340.1118.9x18586%
ROC 모멘텀
n=36, threshold=-0.15
4.8%-64.6%0.310.0712.5x18594%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=30, slow=125
3.7%-52.0%0.280.077.1x12658%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=47, slow=181
1.2%-54.3%0.160.021.9x8360%
Supertrend
period=21, mult=5
1.1%-66.2%0.150.021.8x22056%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.38
0.3%-71.5%0.120.001.2x44554%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=25, threshold=40
0.3%-21.3%0.110.011.2x161%
MACD
fast=22, slow=41, signal=17
-1.2%-77.9%0.04-0.020.5x58350%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=31, k=3
-0.5%-52.8%-0.00-0.010.8x11412%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=30, atrPeriod=18, mult=1.7
-2.6%-84.5%-0.07-0.030.2x47037%
Buy and hold5.4%-73.5%0.320.0716.4x1100%
1x 10x 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 2023 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -18% -37% -55% -73% 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 2023 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -52.7% (2014-03-25 → 2016-09-26), recovered after 2,908 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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