Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

equity · US

WEX Inc. backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of WEX Inc.. 1 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 13.7%, MDD -55.0%).

Data 2005-02-16 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 5,397 (21.5 years)Costs 0.5%Venue XNYSMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

1 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 11.8%, drawdown -79.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 13.7%, MDD -55.0%, Sharpe 0.56, 86% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 1.9%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 24.0%p (CAGR 13.7%, MDD -55.0%, exposure 86%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=8, exitN=60
13.7%-55.0%0.560.2515.6x7786%
ROC 모멘텀
n=37, threshold=-0.1
11.4%-67.9%0.500.1710.0x19184%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=14, slow=57
9.8%-46.9%0.490.217.4x10560%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=19, slow=54
8.9%-63.9%0.460.146.2x8762%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=48, k=1.4
6.7%-49.8%0.400.134.0x12746%
Supertrend
period=25, mult=3.2
6.9%-63.8%0.380.114.2x13560%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.18
6.6%-66.9%0.370.103.9x18956%
MACD
fast=19, slow=47, signal=24
6.1%-60.6%0.360.103.6x20752%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=22, atrPeriod=15, mult=1.8
3.5%-43.8%0.270.082.1x15133%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=22, threshold=15
1.1%-63.5%0.160.021.3x23339%
Buy and hold11.8%-79.0%0.480.1510.9x1100%
1x 10x 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -20% -39% -59% -79% 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -55.0% (2020-06-08 → 2026-06-29), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were carried forward from the latest full optimization and replayed on this monthly dataset. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-optimize the same period and setupAll asset reports

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