Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · FI
Fortum Oyj backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Fortum Oyj. 2 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; EMA 크로스오버 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is EMA 크로스오버 (CAGR 7.6%, MDD -49.4%).
Results by strategy
2 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 6.8%, drawdown -71.8%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR 7.6%, MDD -49.4%, Sharpe 0.46, 66% exposure.
Return/drawdown alternative: EMA 크로스오버 — CAGR is 0.8%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 22.5%p (CAGR 7.6%, MDD -49.4%, exposure 66%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=63, slow=156 |
7.6% | -49.4% | 0.46 | 0.15 | 7.0x | 27 | 66% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=133, threshold=-0.04 |
6.8% | -52.1% | 0.42 | 0.13 | 5.8x | 159 | 73% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=38, slow=123 |
6.3% | -52.7% | 0.41 | 0.12 | 5.1x | 54 | 62% |
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=118, exitN=76 |
5.9% | -53.6% | 0.39 | 0.11 | 4.6x | 31 | 60% |
| Supertrend period=10, mult=4.8 |
5.3% | -55.3% | 0.37 | 0.10 | 3.9x | 75 | 56% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=74, k=2.7 |
2.7% | -40.0% | 0.28 | 0.07 | 2.0x | 54 | 27% |
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=98, atrPeriod=11, mult=1.7 |
2.0% | -61.0% | 0.20 | 0.03 | 1.7x | 128 | 50% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=16, threshold=40 |
0.7% | -10.9% | 0.17 | 0.06 | 1.2x | 22 | 3% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.01, maxStep=0.04 |
-1.5% | -79.7% | 0.03 | -0.02 | 0.7x | 268 | 57% |
| MACD fast=16, slow=56, signal=24 |
-2.7% | -82.1% | -0.03 | -0.03 | 0.5x | 269 | 51% |
| Buy and hold | 6.8% | -71.8% | 0.37 | 0.09 | 5.7x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
Uses two exponential averages (more weight on recent prices) and trades their crossover.
- Buy — Buy when the 63-day EMA crosses above the 156-day EMA
- Sell — Sell when the 63-day EMA falls below the 156-day EMA