Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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KRAFTIA CORPORATION backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of KRAFTIA CORPORATION. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester.

Data 2001-01-01 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 6,373 (25.6 years)Costs 0.5%Venue TSEMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 13.4%, drawdown -60.0%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 12.1%, MDD -49.3%, Sharpe 0.62, 56% exposure.

No strategy retained at least 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR while reducing drawdown by both 20% relatively and 5 percentage points absolutely.

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=86, exitN=68
12.1%-49.3%0.620.2518.6x3056%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=50, slow=182
11.0%-52.2%0.540.2114.6x3559%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=42, slow=118
10.4%-71.2%0.530.1512.6x4760%
ROC 모멘텀
n=198, threshold=0.11
9.6%-51.3%0.520.1910.5x11546%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=69, atrPeriod=28, mult=3
7.8%-36.2%0.490.226.8x7236%
Supertrend
period=13, mult=3.7
6.0%-54.8%0.380.114.5x13454%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=58, k=1.3
5.5%-44.2%0.370.124.0x12443%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=39, threshold=17
3.9%-46.7%0.320.082.6x7823%
MACD
fast=20, slow=35, signal=22
2.7%-58.9%0.230.052.0x25252%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.01, maxStep=0.14
-0.3%-74.5%0.09-0.000.9x31854%
Buy and hold13.4%-60.0%0.560.2224.8x1100%
1x 10x 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -15% -30% -45% -60% 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -49.3% (2001-08-27 → 2003-11-18), recovered after 1,582 days.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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