Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어
equity · KR
대우건설 backtest
10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of 대우건설. 6 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Keltner 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is 볼린저 밴드 돌파 (CAGR 7.1%, MDD -28.6%).
Results by strategy
6 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 7.2%, drawdown -92.4%).
Sharpe leader (same as main): Keltner 채널 돌파 — CAGR 8.4%, MDD -36.4%, Sharpe 0.53, 4% exposure.
CAGR reference leader: Supertrend — CAGR 11.1%, MDD -69.1%, exposure 47%.
Return/drawdown alternative: 볼린저 밴드 돌파 — CAGR is 1.2%p higher than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 56.0%p (CAGR 7.1%, MDD -28.6%, exposure 2%).
The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.
| Strategy · parameters | CAGR | MDD | Sharpe | Calmar | Total | Trades | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keltner 채널 돌파 emaPeriod=19, atrPeriod=17, mult=4 |
8.4% | -36.4% | 0.53 | 0.23 | 7.8x | 22 | 4% |
| 볼린저 밴드 돌파 n=18, k=3.5 |
7.1% | -28.6% | 0.49 | 0.25 | 5.7x | 14 | 2% |
| ADX / DI 방향성 period=26, threshold=35 |
7.5% | -45.1% | 0.48 | 0.17 | 6.2x | 10 | 4% |
| Supertrend period=13, mult=4.8 |
11.1% | -69.1% | 0.47 | 0.16 | 14.3x | 82 | 47% |
| Donchian 채널 돌파 entryN=52, exitN=24 |
8.6% | -74.6% | 0.42 | 0.12 | 8.2x | 78 | 30% |
| SMA 크로스오버 fast=11, slow=48 |
8.8% | -85.7% | 0.41 | 0.10 | 8.5x | 158 | 48% |
| EMA 크로스오버 fast=19, slow=147 |
7.7% | -85.9% | 0.39 | 0.09 | 6.6x | 66 | 45% |
| ROC 모멘텀 n=160, threshold=0.07 |
6.5% | -69.9% | 0.35 | 0.09 | 4.9x | 153 | 38% |
| MACD fast=14, slow=41, signal=13 |
6.5% | -84.8% | 0.35 | 0.08 | 4.9x | 344 | 51% |
| Parabolic SAR step=0.015, maxStep=0.12 |
5.2% | -87.6% | 0.32 | 0.06 | 3.6x | 414 | 49% |
| Buy and hold | 7.2% | -92.4% | 0.39 | 0.08 | 5.8x | 1 | 100% |
Rules of the top strategy
Breaking above the channel top (average plus a multiple of volatility) signals an upside breakout.
- Buy — Buy when the close breaks above the 19-day average + 4× volatility (Keltner top)
- Sell — Sell when the close falls back to the 19-day average