Trend-Following Backtester · Guide · backtest 한국어

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Bakkafrost P/F backtest

10 trend-following strategies were compared on the full daily history of Bakkafrost P/F. 0 beat buy-and-hold CAGR; Donchian 채널 돌파 ranks first by Sharpe, matching the main backtester. The return/drawdown alternative is Donchian 채널 돌파 (CAGR 16.9%, MDD -39.1%).

Data 2010-03-26 ~ 2026-07-31daily bars 4,103 (16.3 years)Costs 0.5%Venue OSLMonthly snapshot 2026-07-31

Results by strategy

0 of 10 beat buy and hold (CAGR 17.0%, drawdown -50.3%).

Sharpe leader (same as main): Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR 16.9%, MDD -39.1%, Sharpe 0.73, 71% exposure.

Return/drawdown alternative: Donchian 채널 돌파 — CAGR is 0.2%p lower than buy and hold, while drawdown improves by 11.1%p (CAGR 16.9%, MDD -39.1%, exposure 71%).

The alternative must retain 75% of buy-and-hold CAGR, improve drawdown by at least 20% and 5 percentage points, and stay below 95% exposure; the ranking weights return retention 60% and drawdown improvement 40%.

Strategy · parametersCAGRMDDSharpeCalmarTotalTradesExposure
Donchian 채널 돌파
entryN=30, exitN=47
16.9%-39.1%0.730.4312.8x3371%
SMA 크로스오버
fast=43, slow=64
13.8%-50.3%0.660.278.3x6462%
Supertrend
period=28, mult=4.8
13.5%-33.5%0.640.408.0x4165%
EMA 크로스오버
fast=20, slow=36
12.4%-50.9%0.610.246.7x7962%
ADX / DI 방향성
period=39, threshold=18
5.5%-16.5%0.540.332.4x3617%
볼린저 밴드 돌파
n=58, k=2.7
6.4%-36.7%0.470.172.8x4030%
ROC 모멘텀
n=77, threshold=-0.06
9.1%-51.8%0.460.174.1x12375%
Keltner 채널 돌파
emaPeriod=59, atrPeriod=25, mult=4
4.7%-33.9%0.390.142.1x3627%
MACD
fast=19, slow=45, signal=19
3.0%-55.2%0.240.051.6x17950%
Parabolic SAR
step=0.005, maxStep=0.16
1.5%-52.7%0.180.031.3x14355%
Buy and hold17.0%-50.3%0.640.3413.1x1100%
1x 10x 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Donchian 채널 돌파Buy and hold
Donchian 채널 돌파: Solid strategy line versus dashed buy-and-hold line. Log scale.
0% -13% -25% -38% -50% 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Buy and holdDonchian 채널 돌파
Donchian 채널 돌파 maximum drawdown -39.1% (2021-10-27 → 2022-11-28), prior peak not yet recovered.

Rules of the top strategy

A new high means a trend starting; a new low means it’s over (turtle-trading style).

Method and caveats

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Parameters were selected on the same full-history sample using sharpe over 40 trials per strategy, so results contain in-sample bias. 0.5% trading costs are included; taxes, slippage and rejected orders are not.
Re-run the same setupAll asset reports

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